2025-09-11 マサチューセッツ大学アマースト校
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.umass.edu/news/article/replacing-forests-solar-net-positive-neighbors-bear-outsized-burden-new-umass-amherst
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264837725002133
太陽光発電か森林か？ 米国北東部における森林地転換の費用便益分析 Solar Power or Forests? A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Forest Land Conversion in the Northeastern United States
Christine L. Crago, Maryam Feyzollahi, Richard W. Harper
Land Use Policy Available online: 17 July 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107679
Highlights
- Cost-benefit analysis of replacing forest land with solar PV installation.
- Impacts include CO2 balance, ecosystem services, and reduction in property values.
- CO2 savings outweigh forest carbon losses in the first year.
- Converting forestland to solar PV facility generates $2.7–$12.7 million in net benefits.
Abstract
This study conducts a cost–benefit analysis of replacing forest land with a large-scale solar (LSS) photovoltaic (PV) facility, using data from a proposed 9.35 project in the Northeastern United States. The analysis quantifies and monetizes key impacts over a 20-year timeframe, including reductions in carbon dioxide emissions from solar electricity generation, lost carbon storage and sequestration from deforestation, lost ecosystem services, and potential reductions in nearby property values. The results under various scenarios show positive net present values ranging from 2.7 to 12.7 million US dollars at 3% discount rate, indicating that the benefits of the solar PV project outweigh the costs of forest land conversion. Results also show that benefits and costs are distributed disproportionately with costs being borne primarily by those living in proximity to the LSS facility. This research contributes to ongoing debates about land use trade-offs in renewable energy expansion and provides a systematic framework for evaluating the economic efficiency of LSS projects that replace forests. The findings may guide policymakers and communities in assessing the overall desirability of hosting such developments, especially in areas with significant forest cover.
