2023-12-12 パシフィック・ノースウェスト国立研究所(PNNL)
◆研究者たちは、暖かい太平洋海域から発生する対流やロスビー波などの気象パターンが、将来の熱波の発生頻度と強度に影響を与える可能性があることを発見しました。研究は、ハイエミッションのシナリオでは熱波の頻度が増加し、これが気候変動によって引き起こされる可能性があると予測しています。地域社会が極端な天候に備えるための戦略の策定や、持続可能な電力インフラの構築に役立つ知見を提供することが期待されています。
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.pnnl.gov/news-media/supercharged-heat-waves-washingtons-deadliest-will-strike-harder-and-more-often-new
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00511-2
北米北西部で夏のヒートドームのような定常波の増加が予測される。 Projected increase in summer heat-dome-like stationary waves over Northwestern North America
Ziming Chen,Jian Lu,Chuan-Chieh Chang,Sandro W. Lubis & L. Ruby Leung
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Published:21 November 2023
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00511-2
Abstract
Heat-dome-like stationary waves often lead to extreme heat events, such as the unprecedented heatwave in Northwestern North America during the summer of 2021. However, future changes in summer stationary waves over Northwestern North America and the underlying driving factors remain unclear. Here, we investigate the projected changes in the anticyclonic stationary wave circulation over Northwestern North America using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and diagnose the circulation changes using a stationary wave model. Our findings reveal a significant 95% increase in the summer stationary wave amplitude over Northwestern North America under the high-emission scenario in 2080–2099 relative to 1995–2014. The response is mainly driven by the diabatic heating changes over the tropical Pacific which induce a Rossby wave source in the northeastern tropical Pacific, and further supported by a northward expanded waveguide in North America, both enhancing wave activity flux into the Northwestern North America. The heat-dome-like stationary wave anomaly is expected to heighten the heatwave risk over the region.
