2025-11-18 東京大学,海上技術安全研究所,運輸総合研究所
シミュレーションを用いた国際海運脱炭素化規制の影響評価
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp/information/category/press/0028460.html
- https://www.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp/assets/files/国際海運における燃料新規制の定量的評価モデルを開発_WEB.pdf
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920925005127
柔軟なコンプライアンスメカニズムを備えた船舶燃料の温室効果ガス強度規制のモデルベース評価 Model-based assessment of marine fuel GHG intensity regulation with flexible compliance mechanism
Shinnosuke Wanaka, Kazuo Hiekata, Tomohito Takeuchi, Masanobu Taniguchi
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment Available online: 12 November 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2025.105102
Abstract
Decarbonization of shipping is one of the biggest challenges facing the maritime industry. This study assesses the impact of regulating greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity in marine fuels called GHG Fuel Standard (GFS) and its flexible compliance mechanisms − pooling, which allows ships to share emission reductions. A computational model was developed to analyze future fleet transformations, fuel consumption, and costs under GFS scenarios with and without pooling. A scenario study using the model indicates that pooling reduces short-term costs by enabling flexible fuel usage. However, pooling delays the phase-out of heavy fuel oil (HFO)-fueled ships, leading to increased costs in 2050 due to reliance on expensive biofuels. The impact of pooling may vary due to uncertainties in transportation demand and fuel prices. By using Monte Carlo simulations considering the uncertainties, the findings were validated, and it was also found that pooling can reduce cost variability for short-term compliance.
