福島近海に生息するヒラメ体内のトリチウム量を推定する~2つのシミュレーションモデルの組み合わせで魚への影響評価を可能に~

2025-10-09 日本原子力研究開発機構,環境科学技術研究所

日本原子力研究開発機構(JAEA)と環境科学技術研究所は、福島近海のヒラメ体内に蓄積されるトリチウム量を高精度に推定する新手法を開発した。海洋拡散モデルでALPS処理水のトリチウム分布を計算し、生態系移行モデルで海水から魚体への移行量を算出。両者を統合することで、海域全体のトリチウム動態を時空間的に再現した。結果、処理水由来トリチウムを含むヒラメを継続摂取しても、人体への影響は無視できるほど小さいと判明。今後は他の魚種にも適用し、長期的な環境リスク評価と風評被害対策に活用される見込み。成果は米国化学会誌『Environmental Science & Technology』に掲載。

福島近海に生息するヒラメ体内のトリチウム量を推定する~2つのシミュレーションモデルの組み合わせで魚への影響評価を可能に~
図1 本研究の概要

<関連情報>

福島第一原子力発電所から放出された処理水によるヒラメへのトリチウム蓄積は無視できる:数値シミュレーション研究 Negligible Tritium Accumulation in Japanese Flounder from Treated Water Released from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant: A Numerical Simulation Study

Tsubasa Ikenoue,Takashi Tani,Hideyuki Kawamura,Yuhi Satoh
Environmental Science & Technology  Published: September 21, 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c04474

Abstract

Since 2023, ALPS-treated water containing tritium from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (1F) accident has been released into the ocean. Monitoring of seafood collected near the Fukushima coast has shown negligible increases in the tritium concentration. However, this monitoring has limitations, including delayed data release and a limited sample size. Therefore, a predictive estimation is necessary to assess the potential for high tritium accumulation in seafood. This study estimated tritium concentrations in Japanese flounder near the Fukushima coast using numerical simulations. The estimation combined an oceanic dispersion model for tritiated water (HTO) with a tritium transfer model for the marine food web. Tritium accumulation was evaluated as organically bound tritium (OBT), the long-retaining chemical form of tritium in organisms. First, the dispersion model’s ability to reproduce HTO concentrations in seawater was validated using actual measurement data from the Fukushima coast, showing good agreement. Subsequently, the OBT concentrations in flounder were estimated under the hypothetical maximum release scenario of the treated water. The estimation suggested that even within 100 km of 1F, the maximum concentration of the OBT was comparable with natural levels of tritium in environmental waters. Additionally, the maximum concentration in the flounder remained at a negligible level for internal radiation exposure through consumption.

1904環境影響評価
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