2025-01-16 NASA
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.nasa.gov/missions/gpm/nasa-scientists-find-new-human-caused-shifts-in-global-water-cycle/
- https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2403707121
地球規模の陸域水循環における非定常性と人新世におけるその相互連関 Nonstationarity in the global terrestrial water cycle and its interlinkages in the Anthropocene
Wanshu Nie, Sujay V. Kumar, Augusto Getirana, +7, and Matthew Rodell
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Published:October 28, 2024
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2403707121
Significance
Traditional strategies for managing water resources often assume that the probability distribution remains constant over time. However, this is not the case given that climate change and human activities have greatly altered the global water cycle. Our research marks a comprehensive analysis to quantify changes in the global water cycle by considering emerging long-term trends, seasonal shifts, and changes in extreme events. Integrating advanced remote sensing measurements and earth system modeling with innovative analysis methods, we examine how climate variability and human activities have altered the global water cycle over the past two decades. Our findings provide significant insights for enhancing water resource management, infrastructure resilience, and the development of adaptive early warning and monitoring systems.
Abstract
Climate change and human activities alter the global freshwater cycle, causing nonstationary processes as its distribution shifting over time, yet a comprehensive understanding of these changes remains elusive. Here, we develop a remote sensing–informed terrestrial reanalysis and assess the nonstationarity of and interconnections among global water cycle components from 2003 to 2020. We highlight 20 hotspot regions where terrestrial water storage exhibits strong nonstationarity, impacting 35% of the global population and 45% of the area covered by irrigated agriculture. Emerging long-term trends dominate the most often (48.2%), followed by seasonal shifts (32.8%) and changes in extremes (19%). Notably, in mid-latitudes, this encompasses 34% of Asia and 27% of North America. The patterns of nonstationarity and their dominant types differ across other water cycle components, including precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and gross primary production. These differences also manifest uniquely across hotspot regions, illustrating the intricate ways in which each component responds to climate change and human water management. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering nonstationarity when assessing water cycle information toward the development of strategies for sustainable water resource usage, enhancing resilience to extreme events, and effectively addressing other challenges associated with climate change.
