エアロゾル汚染と温室効果ガスは同時に削減されなければならない Aerosol pollution, greenhouse gases must be reduced simultaneously
2024-05-29 カリフォルニア大学リバーサイド校(UCR)
＜関連情報＞
- https://news.ucr.edu/articles/2024/05/29/improving-air-quality-increases-forest-fires
- https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adl4007
北半球の北方林の森林火災は、温室効果ガスによる温暖化よりも、将来のエアロゾル緩和の影響を受けやすいのか？ Are Northern Hemisphere boreal forest fires more sensitive to future aerosol mitigation than to greenhouse gas–driven warming?
ROBERT J. ALLEN, BJØRN H. SAMSET, LAURA J. WILCOX, AND ROSIE A. FISHER
Science Advances Published:29 Mar 2024
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl4007
Abstract
Considerable interest exists in understanding how climate change affects wildfire activity. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model version 2 to show that future anthropogenic aerosol mitigation yields larger increases in fire activity in the Northern Hemisphere boreal forests, relative to a base simulation that lacks climate policy and has large increases in greenhouse gases. The enhanced fire response is related to a deeper layer of summertime soil drying, consistent with increased downwelling surface shortwave radiation and enhanced surface evapotranspiration. In contrast, soil column drying is muted under increasing greenhouse gases due to plant physiological responses to increased carbon dioxide and by enhanced melting of soil ice at a depth that increases soil liquid water. Although considerable uncertainty remains in the representation of fire processes in models, our results suggest that boreal forest fires may be more sensitive to future aerosol mitigation than to greenhouse gas–driven warming.
