2026-02-18 九州大学
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.kyushu-u.ac.jp/ja/researches/view/1416
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0954349X26000226
NAFTA諸国間の有害化学物質汚染物質の排出移転：構造変化アプローチ Emission transfers of toxic chemical pollutants among NAFTA Countries: A structural change approach
Shigemi Kagawa, Shohei Tokito, Hidemichi Fujii, Shunsuke Okamoto, Fumiya Nagashima
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Available online: 31 January 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2026.01.017
Highlights
- This study advances PHH research using IO-based analysis of toxic emissions.
- A novel multiregional SDA identifies key drivers of toxic footprints in NAFTA.
- Bilateral trade restructuring turned Mexico into a pollution haven.
- Emission cuts in the US were offset by increases in Mexico.
- Supply-chain-based policies are vital to prevent trade-induced pollution shifts.
Abstract
This study develops a spatial structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to identify the drivers of toxic chemical emissions induced by global final demand. Focusing on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) region, we analyze emissions of hundreds of toxic chemicals in the United States, Canada, and Mexico and examine whether trade growth from 2006 to 2014 increased regional emissions. The results reveal a rapid increase in the net transfer of toxic chemical emissions from the United States to Mexico, driven mainly by structural changes in bilateral trade. By 2014, these transfers accounted for 2.8 % of Mexico’s toxic chemical emissions triggered by global final demand. Critical pollution-intensive supply chain paths were identified, such as U.S. final consumption linked to paper manufacturing in Mexico. Strengthening the North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation through greener cross-border supply chain governance is therefore recommended.
