温暖化による湖や貯水池からのメタン排出増加が気候変動を悪化（Higher methane emissions from warmer lakes and reservoirs may exacerbate worst-case climate scenario）

2025-11-12 リンショーピング大学

＜関連情報＞

• https://liu.se/en/news-item/higher-methane-emissions-from-warmer-lakes-and-reservoirs-may-exacerbate-worst-case-climate-scenario
• https://www.nature.com/articles/s44221-025-00532-6

湖沼や貯水池からの将来のメタン排出量 Future methane emissions from lakes and reservoirs

David Bastviken & Matthew S. Johnson
Nature Water  Published:04 November 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-025-00532-6

Abstract

Global lake and reservoir water surfaces were recently estimated to contribute ~10% of global methane (CH₄) emissions. The sensitivity of these emissions to climate and environmental change is a growing concern. Here we present data-driven, globally gridded modelling of future open-water CH₄ fluxes under different scenarios. We included multiple potential predictor variables and available peer-reviewed flux data focusing on in situ-verified relationships. The results indicate total lake and reservoir CH₄ emissions increases of 24–91% under the IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate change scenarios SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5 by 2080–2099. Effects of changed temperature and seasonality dominated these increases. Area and nutrient load changes also contributed substantially to reservoir emissions. Large absolute changes were predicted at all latitudes. The results demonstrate the urgency in minimizing climate change to avoid substantially increased future inland water CH₄ emissions.