空気汚染対策の長期的効果を分析(Decades in the Making: Seeing the Full Impact From Air Pollution Reductions)

2025-09-26 ジョージア工科大学(Georgia Tech)

ジョージア工科大学の研究チームは、1990年改正クリーンエア法以降のSO₂排出削減が大気中の硫酸塩エアロゾル濃度に与えた長期的影響を解析した。2004〜2023年の米国北東〜中西部および南東部を対象に調査し、機械学習で2050年までの変化を予測。夏は光化学反応によりSO₂と硫酸塩濃度が比例して減少する一方、冬は酸化剤供給が制限要因となり、硫酸塩の減少が遅れる「化学的ダンピング効果」が確認された。ただし2013年以降、冬季SO₂排出が酸化剤供給量を下回り、季節差は縮小。研究者は、この結果が数十年にわたる規制努力の成果であり、今後も大気質と健康改善に寄与すると強調している。

<関連情報>

冬季のSO2排出抑制効果の化学的誘発による低下 Chemically Induced Decline in Wintertime SO2 Emission Control Efficacy

Fanghe Zhao,Yuhang Wang,and Shengjun Xi
Environmental Science & Technology Letters  Published: August 18, 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.5c00731

Abstract

空気汚染対策の長期的効果を分析(Decades in the Making: Seeing the Full Impact From Air Pollution Reductions)

The reduction of SO2 emissions from 2004 to 2023 has resulted in significant decreases in SO2 and sulfate concentrations across the Rust Belt and Southeast of the United States, regions with coal-combustion power plant emissions. While the observed sulfate-to-total-sulfur ratio remained relatively constant at ∼30% in summer, this fraction increased from ∼10% to ∼20% in winter from 2004 to 2013 and then remained at ∼20%. The rise in sulfate-to-total-sulfur ratio resulted in a slower decrease of sulfate in 2004–2013 compared to 2013–2023 despite a greater reduction of SO2 in the earlier decade, reflecting a significant decline in the efficacy of SO2 emission reduction in improving air quality in winter. The decrease in efficacy is attributed to the increased oxidation of SO2 in winter because of the diminishing oversupply of SO2 compared to the availability of atmospheric oxidant, H2O2. Consequently, the seasonal differences in SO2 and sulfate concentrations between summer and winter have narrowed. This chemical damping effect, caused by limited oxidant availability, is likely to delay the reduction in sulfate concentrations in other polluted regions where the transition from coal to natural gas in power plants or alternative energy sources has not progressed as rapidly as in the United States.

1100衛生工学一般
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