持続可能な排出制御への道筋を提示(ZJU Team Charts Road Map to Sustainable Emissions Control)

2025-07-03 浙江大学(ZJU)

持続可能な排出制御への道筋を提示(ZJU Team Charts Road Map to Sustainable Emissions Control)
Spatiotemporal characteristics of China’s carbon and nitrogen emissions and their relative shares

浙江大学の研究チームは、中国全体の炭素・窒素循環を対象に、人間と自然の相互作用を考慮した統合モデル(CHANS-CN)を開発し、効果的かつ低コストな排出削減戦略を提示した。1980〜2020年で中国の炭素排出は6.5倍、窒素損失は2.3倍に増加し、炭素対窒素比も大幅に上昇。特定地域での負荷が集中し、環境に深刻な影響を与えている。統合管理シナリオは2060年までに炭素91%、窒素74%の削減を可能とし、費用対効果も高い。施策例にはエネルギー効率向上、精密施肥、輸送の燃費改善などが含まれる。地域特化型の政策も提案されており、中国のグリーン転換への指針となる。

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中国における費用対効果の高い環境政策のための炭素と窒素の統合管理 Integrated carbon and nitrogen management for cost-effective environmental policies in China

Xin Xu, Xiuming Zhang, Yiyang Zou, Tianrun Chen, […] , and Baojing Gu
Science  Published:5 Jun 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ads4105

Editor’s summary

Anthropogenic activities have greatly perturbed both the carbon and nitrogen cycles, with clear ecological consequences. Successfully management to minimize these impacts is vital to preserving the sustainability of environmental networks and human society. Focusing on China, Xu et al. developed an integrated model for quantifying carbon and nitrogen fluxes and their interactions. By managing them together in an integrated manner, large reductions of carbon and nitrogen could be achieved at lower abatement costs and greater societal benefits than if they were treated separately. —Jesse Smith

Abstract

Carbon and nitrogen are central elements in global biogeochemical cycles. To effectively manage carbon and nitrogen in China, we developed a comprehensive model for quantifying their fluxes, investigating their interplay across 16 human and natural subsystems. Between 1980 and 2020, nitrogen losses in China increased 2.3-fold and carbon emissions surged 6.5-fold. Integrated carbon and nitrogen management holds the potential for a 74% reduction in nitrogen losses to air and water and a 91% decrease in carbon emissions to the atmosphere by 2060. Compared with separate control of carbon or nitrogen, integrated management delivers an additional reduction of 1.8 million tons of nitrogen and 26.5 million tons of carbon by 2060, bringing out a 37% decrease in unit abatement cost and a net societal benefit of 1384 billion USD.

1900環境一般
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