2023-06-21 スイス連邦工科大学ローザンヌ校(EPFL)
◆彼らの研究は、経済モデルを使用して複数の国の気候政策を分析し、二酸化炭素排出量と地球温暖化の進行方向を決定することを目指しています。この研究は、最新の交渉された気候約束を考慮に入れた最初の多重モデル評価であるとされています。ただし、ネットゼロの達成は大きな課題であり、各国の進む道は異なるため、1.5°C未満の地球温暖化を実現するためにはさらなる努力が必要です。
＜関連情報＞
- https://actu.epfl.ch/news/the-2c-warming-target-remains-in-sight/
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01661-0
グラスゴー後の気候目標と実現可能性の課題に関するマルチモデル分析 A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges
Dirk-Jan van de Ven,Shivika Mittal,Ajay Gambhir,Robin D. Lamboll,Haris Doukas,Sara Giarola,Adam Hawkes,Konstantinos Koasidis,Alexandre C. Köberle,Haewon McJeon,Sigit Perdana,Glen P. Peters,Joeri Rogelj,Ida Sognnaes,Marc Vielle & Alexandros Nikas
Nature Climate Change Published:18 May 2023
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01661-0
Abstract
The COP26 Glasgow process resulted in many countries strengthening their 2030 emissions reduction targets and announcing net-zero pledges for 2050–2070 but it is not clear how this would impact future warming. Here, we use four diverse integrated assessment models (IAMs) to assess CO2 emission trajectories in the near- and long-term on the basis of national policies and pledges, combined with a non-CO2 infilling model and a simple climate model to assess the temperature implications. We also consider the feasibility of national long-term pledges towards net-zero. While near-term pledges alone lead to warming above 2 °C, the addition of long-term pledges leads to emissions trajectories compatible with a future well below 2 °C, across all four IAMs. However, while IAM heterogeneity translates to diverse decarbonization pathways towards long-term targets, all modelled pathways indicate several feasibility concerns, relating to the cost of mitigation and the rates and scales of deployed technologies and measures.
