気象モデルにおける灌漑データ不足が大気汚染予測を歪める可能性(Irrigation gaps in weather models could skew air quality forecasts, study finds)

2026-03-04 ペンシルベニア州立大学(Penn State)

米ペンシルベニア州立大学(Penn State)の研究によると、気象モデルが農業灌漑(かんがい)の影響を十分に考慮していない場合、大気質予測に誤差が生じる可能性がある。研究チームは米国の農業地域を対象に、灌漑が地表の水分量や蒸発散量、気温、湿度に与える影響を気象モデルに組み込んで分析した。その結果、灌漑は地域の気温や湿度を変化させ、大気中のオゾンや微粒子などの生成・拡散条件を変えるため、大気汚染の予測結果が大きく変わる可能性があることが判明した。特に灌漑の多い地域では、大気質モデルが実際の環境条件を過小評価または過大評価する恐れがある。研究者は、より正確な大気質予測のためには農業活動、とくに灌漑の影響を気象・大気モデルに統合することが重要だと指摘している。

気象モデルにおける灌漑データ不足が大気汚染予測を歪める可能性(Irrigation gaps in weather models could skew air quality forecasts, study finds)
An eddy-covariance flux tower near irrigated cotton fields in San Joaquin Valley was installed in August 2023 at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources experimental fields to continuously measure exchanges of heat, moisture and momentum between the land surface and atmosphere. Credit: Fan Wu. All Rights Reserved.

<関連情報>

米国西部および東部における渦共分散フラックス測定を用いたWRFにおける表面フラックスの評価 Evaluating surface fluxes in WRF using eddy-covariance flux measurements in the Western and Eastern U.S.

Fan Wu, Kenneth J. Davis, Li Zhang, Ray G. Anderson, Jason P. Horne  Sarah Goslee, William Munger, Chenxia Cai, Yu Yan Cui, Zhan Zhao, Min Zhong
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology  Available online: 3 February 2026
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111029

Highlights

  • WRF PX LSM overestimates H and underestimates LE over irrigated lands in CA.
  • Heat flux biases in CA are linked to missing irrigation in the land surface model.
  • PX LSM shows moderate, land-dependent energy partitioning biases in the Mid-Atlantic.
  • Momentum flux is overestimated in the day and regionally biased at night.
  • Sixteen year-long EC tower data used to evaluate state agencies’ WRF configurations.

Abstract

Atmospheric boundary layer simulations in weather models, important elements of air quality simulations, are coupled with land surface parameterizations. The San Joaquin Valley (SJV) of California and the Multi-state Mid-Atlantic (MMA) feature diverse land uses, including agriculture, urban areas, and forests, which pose challenges for simulating surface fluxes. This study evaluates surface fluxes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using physical configurations adopted by state air quality agencies in California and Pennsylvania. We compared WRF simulations with year-long eddy-covariance flux measurements from 16 sites across the two regions. Results show that the Pleim-Xiu land surface model (PX LSM) exhibits substantial heat flux biases in the SJV but lacks systematic biases in the MMA. In the SJV, the model overestimates daytime (10:00-16:00 LST) sensible heat flux (H) by 260 W m-2 (274%) and underestimates latent heat flux (LE) by 200 W m-2 (68%) at irrigated croplands and orchards during spring and summer. In the MMA, PX LSM moderately overestimates both H and LE, with stronger partitioning into H over urban surfaces and into LE over vegetation. Daytime momentum fluxes are overestimated in both regions, while nighttime biases are inconsistent. Our findings suggest that in the SJV, heat flux biases are strongly associated with irrigation during the growing season, while in the MMA, model-data residuals are limited to modest errors in the Bowen ratio and depend on land cover. Improving WRF’s representation of irrigation and land use, potentially through satellite remote sensing, may enhance surface flux simulation accuracy.

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