2025-12-18 バッファロー大学
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.buffalo.edu/news/releases/2025/12/study-guides-climate-modelers-on-partnering-with-indigenous-communities
- https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025AV001921
共同設計地球システムモデルに向けて：モデル作成者の視点からエンドユーザーの優先事項をローカルアプリケーションに反映 Toward Co-Designed Earth System Models: Reflecting End-User Priorities in Local Applications From a Modeler’s Perspective
Yifan Cheng, Nicole Herman-Mercer, Andrew Newman, Keith Musselman, Cleo Woelfle-Hazard, Dylan Blaskey, Cassandra Brooks, Tvetene Carlson, Joshua Koch, Monica Morrison …
AGU Advances Published: 04 December 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001921
Abstract
Earth System Models (ESM) are crucial for quantifying climate impacts across Earth’s interconnected systems and supporting science-based adaptation and mitigation. However, not including end-users, especially decision-makers representing communities vulnerable to climate change, can limit model utility, increase epistemic risks, and lead to information misuse in decision-making. While the ESM community increasingly values broad community engagement, end-users may not initially perceive models as useful for local planning. Co-designing models with end-users fosters two-way learning: users better understand models and their outputs, while modelers gain insights into fine-scale local processes like monitoring practices and management priorities. Higher-level co-design can lead to more customized, priority-driven, and useful modeling products. Despite these benefits, modelers often struggle to initiate meaningful partnerships with local communities. Therefore, this paper explores model co-design from the perspective of modelers. This study presents two case studies where modelers and social scientists collaborated with Indigenous communities’ decision-makers to reflect their priorities in model design and application. In the Arctic Rivers Project, high-resolution climate and hydrology data sets for Alaska were developed with guidance from an Indigenous Advisory Council, using optimized, coupled land-atmosphere models. In the Mid-Klamath Project, we partnered with the Karuk Tribe’s Department of Natural Resources to assess climate change and prescribed burning impacts on terrestrial hydrology in the Klamath River Basin. Drawing from these studies, we introduce a four-level framework: (a) Co-design Configuration; (b) Model Tuning; (c) Incorporate Contextual Knowledge; (d) Co-develop New Model Functions. We aim to help researchers consider and compare co-design across diverse modeling projects systematically and coherently.
Plain Language Summary
Earth System Models can help us assess how climate change affects Earth systems and support climate adaptation planning. However, when the perspectives of those who use or are impacted by the result of model products are not included, the usefulness of the results can be limited. This study highlights two cases that involve end-users who are decision-makers from Indigenous communities affected by climate change. We discuss the value of model co-design, a collaborative process where scientists and end-users work together to shape how models are built and used. Co-design helps ensure that models reflect local priorities and knowledge, while also making the science more accessible to non-experts and helping modelers understand management needs and how to make their models more useful. Our two case studies at vastly different scales include one in Alaska, where an Indigenous Advisory Council guided the development of regional climate models, and another in northern California, where the Karuk Tribe partnered with researchers to explore the effects of climate change and prescribed burning on local watershed processes. These examples show how co-design can lead to more relevant and actionable modeling outcomes. We introduce a four-level framework to help researchers plan and evaluate co-design efforts in future projects.
Key Points
- Co-designing Earth System Models with end users enhances relevance and reduces potential misuse in decision-making
- Integrating local priorities improved model outcomes in two case studies with Indigenous communities in Alaska and California
- We introduce a four-level framework to guide and assist researchers to consider and compare the co-design process across projects
