2025-09-02 カリフォルニア大学サンディエゴ校(UCSD)
Coastal mangroves. Photo: Octavio Aburto
＜関連情報＞
- https://today.ucsd.edu/story/ocean-warming-projected-to-stall-expected-mangrove-recovery
- https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/adffa9
海洋温暖化がマングローブ再生目標を脅かし、生態系サービス損失における世界的な不平等を深刻化させる A warming ocean threatens mangrove restoration targets and deepens global inequities in ecosystem service losses
Bernardo Adolfo Bastien-Olvera, Octavio Aburto-Oropeza, Fabio Favoretto, Dillon Amaya, Elmer Urbano, Luke M Brander and Katharine Ricke
Environmental Research: Climate Accepted Manuscript online: 27 August 2025
DOI:10.1088/2752-5295/adffa9
Abstract
Global efforts to restore mangrove coverage face a growing but underexplored threat from a warming ocean, jeopardizing the future benefits mangroves provide. Using high-resolution global data across 1-degree grid cells, we assess how climatic and socioeconomic factors influence mangrove dynamics. We find that mangroves are depleted in lower-income regions, but eventually restored as income rises. Similarly, mangroves in cooler areas may benefit from warming temperatures up to a threshold beyond which damage occurs. Although increasing wealth alone could have led to substantial global mangrove recovery by 2100, warming sea surface temperatures stall this progress—erasing the gains that would have occurred under socioeconomic change alone. By the end of the century, under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5 and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 7.0 scenarios, mangrove areas could be 150 000 hectares smaller than a no climate change baseline. We estimate annual welfare losses from reduced cultural, provisioning, and regulating services to reach 28 billion USD by 2100. Regional disparities are pronounced: Asia bears 64% of losses, followed by the Middle East and Africa (18%), Latin America and the Caribbean (12%), and OECD countries (3%). 
