東アジアの空気清浄化と地球温暖化の関係(Cleaner East Asian air unmasks a much hotter planet)

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2025-07-14 カリフォルニア大学リバーサイド校(UCR)

カリフォルニア大学リバーサイド校の研究によると、中国を中心とした東アジアでのエアロゾル削減が地球の温暖化加速に寄与している。硫酸塩エアロゾルは冷却効果を持つが、2010年以降の排出削減によりその効果が薄れ、温室効果ガスの影響が顕在化。気候モデルは、この地域の変化だけで過去15年の全球気温上昇の大部分を説明可能と示す。空気の清浄化と温暖化防止を両立させる統合的対策が今後重要になる。

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東アジアのエアロゾル浄化が近年の温暖化加速に寄与している可能性が高い East Asian aerosol cleanup has likely contributed to the recent acceleration in global warming

Bjørn H. Samset,Laura J. Wilcox,Robert J. Allen,Camilla W. Stjern,Marianne T. Lund,Sharar Ahmadi,Annica Ekman,Maxwell T. Elling,Luke Fraser-Leach,Paul Griffiths,James Keeble,Tsuyoshi Koshiro,Paul Kushner,Anna Lewinschal,Risto Makkonen,Joonas Merikanto,Pierre Nabat,Larissa Narazenko,Declan O’Donnell,Naga Oshima,Steven T. Rumbold,Toshihiko Takemura,Kostas Tsigaridis & Daniel M. Westervelt
Communications Earth & Environment   Published:14 July 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02527-3

東アジアの空気清浄化と地球温暖化の関係(Cleaner East Asian air unmasks a much hotter planet)

Abstract

Global surface warming has accelerated since around 2010, relative to the preceding half century1,2,3. This has coincided with East Asian efforts to reduce air pollution through restricted atmospheric aerosol and precursor emissions4,5. A direct link between the two has, however, not yet been established. Here we show, using a large set of simulations from eight Earth System Models, how a time-evolving 75% reduction in East Asian sulfate emissions partially unmasks greenhouse gas-driven warming and influences the spatial pattern of surface temperature change. We find a rapidly evolving global, annual mean warming of 0.07 ± 0.05 °C, sufficient to be a main driver of the uptick in global warming rate since 2010. We also find North-Pacific warming and a top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance that are qualitatively consistent with recent observations. East Asian aerosol cleanup is thus likely a key contributor to recent global warming acceleration and to Pacific warming trends.

1900環境一般
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