2025-03-24 ゲーテ大学
＜関連情報＞
- https://aktuelles.uni-frankfurt.de/english/5700-year-storm-archive-shows-rise-in-tropical-storms-and-hurricanes-in-the-caribbean/
- https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ads5624
カリブ海のサイクロン発生頻度の要因について、5700年にわたる暴風雨の年別アーカイブから明らかになった An annually resolved 5700-year storm archive reveals drivers of Caribbean cyclone frequency
Dominik Schmitt, Eberhard Gischler, Martin Melles, Volker Wennrich, […], and Daniel Birgel
Science Advances Published:14 Mar 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ads5624
Abstract
Predictions of tropical cyclone (TC) frequencies are hampered by insufficient knowledge of their natural variability in the past. A 30-m-long sediment core from the Great Blue Hole, a marine sinkhole offshore Belize, provides the longest available, continuous, and annually resolved TC-frequency record. This record expands our understanding, derived from instrumental monitoring (73 years), historical documentations (173 years), and paleotempestological records (2000 years), to the past 5700 years. A total of 694 event layers were identified. They display a distinct regional trend of increasing storminess in the southwestern Caribbean, which follows an orbitally driven shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Superimposed short-term variations match Holocene climate intervals and originate from solar irradiance–controlled sea-surface temperature anomalies and climate phenomena modes. A 21st-century extrapolation suggests an unprecedented increase in TC frequency, attributable to the Industrial Age warming.
