2023-07-20 カリフォルニア大学サンタバーバラ校(UCSB)
◆科学者は、東アフリカのホーン地域（ケニア、ソマリア、エチオピア）で深刻な食料不安を引き起こす干ばつを数ヶ月先まで予測できるようになったと主張しています。2016年から2017年にかけての干ばつを予測し、対策を取ることで多くの人々の命を救うことができました。
◆気候変動の影響により、さらなる干ばつが予測されるため、早期警戒システムと適応策への投資が重要であり、被害を軽減するために必要です。地域の理解を深め、対策を講じることが、将来の災害に対する有効な戦略となると期待されています。
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.news.ucsb.edu/2023/021128/climate-science-catching-climate-change-predictions-could-improve-proactive-response
- https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023EF003524
東アフリカにおける積極的な介入を可能にする極端な気候予測 Tailored Forecasts Can Predict Extreme Climate Informing Proactive Interventions in East Africa
Chris Funk, Laura Harrison, Zewdu Segele, Todd Rosenstock, Peter Steward, C. Leigh Anderson, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Daniel Maxwell, Hussen Seid Endris, Eunice Koch, Guleid Artan, Fetene Teshome, Stella Maris Aura, Gideon Galu, Diriba Korecha, Weston Anderson, Andrew Hoell, Kerstin Damerau, Emily Williams, Aniruddha Ghosh, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, David Hughes
Earth’s Future Published:20 July 2023
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003524
Abstract
This commentary discusses new advances in the predictability of east African rains and highlights the potential for improved early warning systems (EWS), humanitarian relief efforts, and agricultural decision-making. Following an unprecedented sequence of five droughts, 23 million east Africans faced starvation in 2022, requiring >$2 billion in aid. Here, we update climate attribution studies showing that these droughts resulted from an interaction of climate change and La Niña. Then we describe, for the first time, how attribution-based insights can be combined with the latest dynamical models to predict droughts at 8-month lead-times. We then discuss behavioral and social barriers to forecast use, and review literature examining how EWS might (or might not) enhance agro-pastoral advisories and humanitarian interventions. Finally, in reference to the new World Meteorological Organization “Early Warning for All” Executive Action Plan, we conclude with a set of recommendations supporting actionable and authoritative climate services. Trust, urgency, and accuracy can help overcome barriers created by limited funding, uncertain tradeoffs, and inertia. Understanding how climate change is producing predictable climate extremes now, investing in African-led EWS, and building better links between EWS and agricultural development efforts can support long-term adaptation, reducing chronic needs for billions of dollars in reactive assistance. In Africa and beyond, climate change brings increasingly extreme sea surface temperature (SST) gradients. Using climate models, we can often see these extremes coming. Prediction, therefore, offers opportunities for proactive risk management and improved advisory services, if we can create effective societal linkages via cross-silo collaborations.
Key Points
- Climate change and La Niña are producing extreme Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradients, which can be predicted very far in advance
- These Pacific SST forecasts provide robust opportunities for predicting well wet and dry outcomes in East Africa
- Trust, urgency and accuracy can overcome barriers due to limited funding, uncertain tradeoffs, and inertia by improving advisory services
Plain Language Summary
Eastern East Africa is extremely food insecure. Millions of farmers and pastoralists rely on two meager rainy seasons that arrive twice a year. In the 13 seasons since late 2016, the region experienced eight droughts and three exceptionally wet seasons. Seven droughts were linked to very strong Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradients, which arose through an interaction between climate change and La Niña. Climate change will bring more extreme Pacific and Indian Ocean SST gradients. Here, for the first time, we show that these gradients can be very well predicted by the current generation of climate models. We then discuss how such information might be used to inform risk management, agriculture, and livestock management practices. The IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center, Ethiopian and Kenyan meteorological agencies, and other groups are providing increasingly accurate climate information. This creates opportunities for more proactive and effective agricultural and pastoral advisory services. Trust, urgency and accuracy can lower uncertainty, reduce risk aversion, and empower poor households and cash-strapped institutions to act and innovate. Investing now in collaborative African climate systems, participatory advisory services and proactive risk management will help counter these threatening climate extremes.
