気候安全地帯が生物多様性保全の鍵になる可能性を調査(Climate Safe Havens Could Be One of Earth’s Best Defenses Against Global Warming)

2025-12-17 マサチューセッツ大学アマースト校

マサチューセッツ大学アマースト校(UMass Amherst)の研究チームは、地球温暖化の影響を比較的受けにくい「クライメート・セーフヘイブン(気候的安全地帯)」が、生物多様性保全の重要な防衛線となり得るかを評価した。研究では、将来の気候変動シナリオと生態系モデルを用い、気温上昇や降水変化に対して安定性の高い地域を特定した。その結果、冷涼で湿潤な気候を維持しやすい一部地域は、種の絶滅リスクを低減する可能性がある一方、極端気象の頻発や人為的土地利用の影響により、必ずしも長期的な安全が保証されるわけではないことが示された。研究は、セーフヘイブンを過信せず、温室効果ガス削減と地域特性に応じた保全戦略を組み合わせる必要性を強調している。本成果は、気候変動下における生態系保全政策の立案に重要な科学的根拠を提供する。

アカディア国立公園、キャデラック山からのパノラマビュー。写真提供:ゲッティイメージズ<関連情報>

気候変動避難所の保全:研究と実践からの洞察 Conserving climate-change refugia: Insights from research and practice

Toni Lyn Morelli, Tina Mozelewski, Cybil Nicole Cavalieri, Andrew J. Caven, Lindsay M. Dreiss, Rachel A. Hovel, Melissa Hua, Megan K. Jennings, Aji John, Gregory Kehm …
Conservation Science and Practice  Published: 17 December 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.70160

気候安全地帯が生物多様性保全の鍵になる可能性を調査(Climate Safe Havens Could Be One of Earth’s Best Defenses Against Global Warming)

Abstract

As the impacts of anthropogenic climate change increase, conservation of climate-change refugia has become a key strategy for effective environmental stewardship. Over the last 5 years, the field of climate-change refugia conservation has made exciting advances, shifting from concepts and theory to refugia mapping and implementation. However, few studies have advanced to action on the ground; while 84% of studies identified and mapped refugia, only 4% involved implementing management action. Moreover, taxonomic and geographic gaps remain, with most studies focused on terrestrial plants and vertebrates in Europe and North America. Here, we outline impediments to implementation following the steps of the Climate-Change Refugia Conservation Cycle. Based on a systematic literature review, we elucidate advances and obstacles with examples from a diversity of systems and sectors from across the world and highlight emerging work bridging the gap between research and implementation.

 

モデルから管理へ:米国北東部の国立公園における気候変動避難所保全サイクルの実施 From models to management: Implementing the climate-change refugia conservation cycle in national parks of the northeastern United States

Christopher P. Nadeau, Jennifer R. Smetzer, Sara Wisner, Kyle A. Lima, A. Randall Hughes, Abraham J. Miller-Rushing, Jesse S. Wheeler, Toni Lyn Morelli, Tina G. Mozelewski
Conservation Science and Practice  Published: 17 December 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.70159

Abstract

Managing climate-change refugia is a commonly recommended strategy for conserving biodiversity. However, few efforts have moved beyond the modeling phase of refugia science to management. Here, we present two case studies that move beyond modeling to testing models and management. In the first case study, we model refugia for two plant species (three-toothed cinquefoil [Sibbaldia tridentata] and black crowberry [Empetrum nigrum]) in Acadia National Park, Maine, United States, and use greenhouse experiments, common-garden experiments, and participatory science to evaluate the output of those models. Our results suggest that three-toothed cinquefoil growth and survival are reduced under increased temperatures as models predict. However, other variables (e.g., soil moisture and salinity) might also be important to modeling and managing refugia for both species. National Park Service staff and partners have been directing restoration for both species to refugia, but are also exploring other adaptation strategies. In the second case study, we demonstrate that existing prioritization processes for habitat restoration in national parks of the northeastern United States rarely incorporate refugia for two indicator species: Jefferson salamander (Ambystoma jeffersonianum) and grasshopper sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum). Our work demonstrates that moving beyond modeling can improve models and lead to new management insights.

 

米国太平洋岸北西部の森林生態系における火災避難場所:保全、適応、管理のための科学と応用 Fire refugia in forest ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest, USA: Science and applications for conservation, adaptation, and stewardship

Meg A. Krawchuk, Garrett W. Meigs, Cameron E. Naficy, David M. Bell, Jessica L. Hudec, Jeremy T. Rockweit, Raymond J. Davis
Conservation Science and Practice  Published: 17 December 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.70173

Abstract

Concepts and models of fire refugia are increasingly important components of forest management and adaptation discussions in the context of wildland fire, forest and habitat conservation, and global change. Recent stand-replacing fires in mature and old-growth forests of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the western United States have increased land manager and scientific interest in fire refugia that can provide important ecosystem services. Here we provide an overview of fire refugia concepts and products being actively developed and applied in forests of the PNW (Washington, Oregon, California), characterize key distinctions among fire refugia in different biophysical settings, present three case studies to illustrate applications, and briefly describe future directions for these concepts in scientist-practitioner partnerships. By increasing awareness of fire refugia concepts, datasets, and decision support tools, we aim to bolster the adaptive capacity of practitioners, managers, and partners invested in ecosystem management, while strengthening the long-horizon collaborations necessary for applied science and conservation.

1903自然環境保全
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